LOGICAL APPROACH

P. O. Box 20405 - - - Las Vegas, NV 89112 - - - (702) 898 - 9802

Visit us on the Web at www.thelogicalapproach.com

Batter Up!

The 1999 Major League Baseball Season is Here!

And there will be over 6,000 profit-making opportunities !!

Baseball has historically been our favorite sport. The daily action. The two, three and four game series with the same opponent. The relatively stable starting lineups. The huge difference in starting pitching. The value of the bullpen. The biases of the Umpires. The uniqueness of the ballparks - and the teams taylor-made to play in them. All of these factors, plus others, combine to make baseball a very beatable betting proposition. And unlike basketball and football, all you do is pick the winner of the game on the field!

Sure. There are vagaries and nuances that must be considered. Picking winners is one thing. Making a profit from picking winners is another. That's where our years of experience and expertise come in.

At Logical Approach we have been handicapping major league baseball for almost 20 years with a solid record of success. As with all sports, baseball is very streaky. But it is also perhaps the most formful of all sports, largely due to the long season that makes certain the best teams play the best baseball. Statistics are most meaningful in baseball, be they player, team or generic. Our years of experience have shown us how to identify and profit from form cycles, rookie pitchers, biased umpires and the like. Most importantly of all, we know how to profit from betting on baseball.

Baseball uses the Money Line, which differs significantly from the pointspread that is used in basketball and football. In baseball you wager according to set odds, based upon the likelihood one teams has in defeating another. For example, the Yankees are the best team in baseball. Kansas City might be amongst the worst. To back the Yankees to beat the Royals you have to lay odds to a dollar, for example 3-1. This means that in order for you to win a bet on the Yankees to beat the Royals, by any score, you would risk $300 to win $100. If you thought the Royals would pull the upset you would risk $100 to win $240. That difference of $60, between what the Favorite player lays and the Underdog bettor takes, is the linesmaker's edge.

Most baseball games are more competitive than our example. Thus if the Astros were hosting the Cardinals the Astros might be favored by about -140, meaning you'd bet $140 to win $100 if you wanted to back the Astros. Since baseball uses a ten cents line in many places (which is very advantageous to the bettor) you would risk $100 on the Cardinals to win $130 if they were to win the game.

The major variables that determine the price on a game are the relative differences between the two teams, the differences in the quality of the opposing starting pitchers, and the home field advantage (which is even more significant in Run Line wagering which we shall discuss shortly).

Showing a profit is not as easy it you might think. Winning percentage is not the key to profits. Keep in mind the critical concept that it's the prices of your winners and losers. You can hit 60% winners and show a loss (by playing mostly favorites) or you can hit 40% winners and show a profit (by playing on underdogs).

There will be over 2,000 major league baseball games played this season. In addition to wagering on which team you think will win the game, you can also wager on whether the total runs scored in the game will be less than or greater than a specified number. Generally the total runs number is 8 to 8 ½ in the National League and 9 to 9 ½ in the American League, although there are significant variations due most often to the specifics of certain ballparks (i.e. Fenway Park, Wrigley Field and Coors Field in Colorado usually have totals posted that are significantly above the norm. Generally a 20 cents line is used in Totals, or Over/Under. Wagers so that a game might be listed as Over 8 ½ runs and -130 with the corresponding Under 8 ½ runs being +110. Here again there will be more than 2,000 wagering opportunities this season.

There is also Run Line wagering which is similar in concept to a pointspread and, in effect, combines the concepts of a Pointspread and a Money Line. Generally, a Run Line of plus or minus 1 ½ runs is used. In this type of wager the favorite lays 1 ½ runs while the underdog takes 1 ½ runs and the Money Line price on the game is adjusted from the straight 'winner of the game' line. For example, in our earlier illustration the Astros were -140 to defeat the Cardinals. Using the Run line concept, the Astros might be +155 to win the game by at least 2 runs (i.e. - 1 ½) and the Cardinals might be -175 to either win the game or lose by exactly 1 run (i.e. + 1 ½). Usually a 20 cents line, or 20 cents spread, is used in Run Lines.

Run lines can be used effectively to lower the price you must lay on a favorite to win a game by giving up that 1 run win and can also be used to change a favorite into an underdog (as in our Astros example) by merely requiring the favorite to win by 2 or more runs. We have the math and the historical data to show how Run Line wagering can be extremely profitable.

Although Parlay wagers are often considered taboo when it comes to football and basketball, they can be utilized extremely effectively in baseball, especially when playing favorites. Consider two favorites each of whom is -150. A line of -150 equate to the mathematical fraction of 3/2 which translates into a chance of success of 60%. That is, a team that is -150 is given a 60% chance of winning by the linesmaker. In baseball Parlays pay off at true odds. That is, if you Parlay to even money teams together (+ 100) a $100 wager would return $400, for a profit of $300. Those are true odds for two even money bets. If you were to parlay two teams each of whom is -150, the return on a $100 wager would be $277, for a profit of $177.

Do you see what is happening here? We are taking two 60% favorites, tying them together, and when they win we are getting paid as if we had bet a single +177 underdog.

More dramatic yet is the case of a pair of 2 to 1 favorites, teams on which you would have to bet $200 individually to win $100 individually. A 2-1 favorite (i.e. -200) has a 67% chance of winning (they should win two of three games). Put those two -200 favorites together in a Parlay and your $100 wager returns $225 for a profit of $125! Two substantial favorites combine into a +125 Underdog! Yes, Parlays can very powerful tools!

We've done a tremendous amount of work this past off-season getting ready for 1999. The dynamics of modern day baseball combined with current pricemaking and wagering practices afford us a great opportunity for profit in baseball investments.

We'd like to invite you to join us for the 1999 season. Each day throughout the season we shall release what we consider the best plays of the day. Sometimes they will be sides, with underdogs or small favorites (-125 or less) predominant. We will recommend Over/Unders. And we'll even recommend Parlays as the matchups and prices dictate. During the course of a weekly period we expect to have about 15-20 releases, or between 2 and 3 per day. We look to average a profit of between 2 and 3 units per week. This is both a reasonable and very attainable goal.

Historically we get out of the gate fast so consider signing up NOW. Our prices are amongst the most affordable in the industry and you get personal consultation on an as-needed basis as well. For details and prices, see the enclosed Order Form. Any questions? Please call us at the above telephone number.

Now it's Batter Up and let's PLAY BALL!